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In the middle of last February, a North American university professor, Nouriel Roubini, very followed in specialized means and the daily press, developed the twelve reasons that justified their prognosis of "an increasing probability of a financial and economic outcome ` catastróficó to the banking crisis in course" in the United States. In addition, he explained, more forceful, his "pesimism about the ability of the policies and financial authorities to administer and to contain a crisis of this magnitude". According to Roubini, "it is necessary to prepare itself for the worse thing, that is to say, for a financial crisis sistémica".f1 As the financial system represents the termination of the capitalist system, because it is there where all the product of the work acquires the universal form of the value, the warning of Roubini specifies the tendency to the dissolution of the capitalist social relations and the incapacity of the present political regime to do to him in front. It is obvious, on the other hand, that "one (`inconteniblé) sistémica financial crisis" will not find their limits in the North American borders.
The one of Roubini it would not have happened to be one more a position in the discussions than it has untied the present crisis, if it had not received endorsement from the waited for place less: the publisher of the Financial Timesf2, spokesman of international the financial capital "Is at least reasonable this class of scene", Martín Wolf asks to him its readers. "it is It", it responds, "and we can be sure that, to happen, it will end all histories of ` I disconnect" in reference to the relation between the economy of the United States and the one of the rest of the main countries. For Wolf, nevertheless, the crisis not only has an exit but that she will prevail like a "iron law": the capital will finish unavoidably being rescued by the State, it is by means of the estatización of the insolvente debt or the inflation, or both simultaneously. Pain is one that the publisher of the FT has stopped his argument here, because a estatización in mass of the financial capital would be equivalent to a financial bankruptcy of the State that rescues it; the inflation to a generalized social ruin; and both to a breakup without precedents of the social relations.
The first point that exposes Roubini is the collapse that is happening with the prices of the houses, that could sweep, if it arrives at the order of the 20 to the 30 percent, with 4 to 6 trillions of real estate wealth and to put in negative value to ten million properties - that is when the value of the property falls below the value of the received loan to buy that property. At the beginning of March, indeed, the statistics let see that the patrimonial value of the homes had entered negative land for the first time from World War II. This phenomenon precipitates the breach of the hypothecating payments, even on the part of indebted the solvents, because the closing of the property represents an inferior cost the debt. Supposing a stock of hypothecating debts of 50 trillions of dollars, default already affects a segment that goes from the 10 to 20% of the total; although still one is distant of 50% of cessation of payments that was the rate of bankruptcy in the crisis of years ' 30, the speed whereupon it is increasing surpasses to any previous hypothecating crisis. The number of empty or vacant properties is of near two million.
To the devaluation which they are suffering the prices of the properties it is necessary to add the casualties that the breach of the payments of the adjustable loans is inflicting to the deserving banks hypothecating, calls ` I subprioritized, that already is of about 400,000 million dollars but that it could reach the trillion if it continues the present tendency. This collapse will affect other forms of credit which they have like guarantee to these hypothecating loans - which represents a market (structured credits) of 8 trillions of dollars, that is at the completely congealed present time, that is that is transacciones.f3 no half of the international market of credit is formed by bonds with diverse classes of guarantee (other half is bank loans), that in greater or smaller proportion includes incobrables hypothecating credits of different characteristics. There is a landslide scene of the debt market, that moves about 50 trillions of dollars. The system of protection of these titles on the part of specialized companies of insurances or by bottoms of cover, is in ruins, due to the little base of capital of the insurers. If a rate of breach of the 1.3% is assumed, "about 500,000 million dollars would operate in the face of negociantes".4 the things appear quite worse to I decipher it by Roubini. That extreme potential of losses is equivalent to 25% of total the banking capitalization of the United States - of 2 trillions of dollars or to a little less with respect to international the banking capitalization - of 2.7 trillions. If we considered the total of speculative transactions that have by base the bond markets and actions (derived), of more than 500 trillions of dollars, default of 2% represents losses by 10 trillions.
The description of ` catástrofé in course also enters the breach in the payment of the diverse forms of credit the consumption, to the point that the interest rate of the credit cards already surpasses comfortably both digits. To this it is necessary to add the extension from the crisis to commercial the hypothecating market and the impact that it is causing in the regional banks. In agreement with a recent report, "a tremendous one exists on supply of retail commercial space".
Other 500,000 million dollars are clogged in the banks by loans for purchases of companies, whose titles cannot be sold in the market to the original value. Although, according to the publisher of the FT, Martin Wolf, "the North American companies they are in good form, one ` part obesá has low yields and a debt elevada".5 ` defaults' that would be from the devaluation of this bond class in being able of the banks would cause losses by 250,000 million dollars.
To these sinsabores Roubini it adds the disintegration of the "financial system in the shades", that is of all the deregulated financial companies, like common bottoms, trusts or bottoms of cover, that do not have access to bottoms of the central banks. The final consequence of all this landslide cascade would be crash of the Bags and the collapse of the markets of capitals, where the financial assets would finish being sold to prices of closing.
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World-wide the capitalist crisis is unstoppable
In the middle of last February, a North American university professor, Nouriel Roubini, very followed in specialized means and the daily press, developed the twelve reasons that justified their prognosis of "an increasing probability of a financial and economic outcome ` catastróficó to the banking crisis in course" in the United States. In addition, he explained, more forceful, his "pesimism about the ability of the policies and financial authorities to administer and to contain a crisis of this magnitude". According to Roubini, "it is necessary to prepare itself for the worse thing, that is to say, for a financial crisis sistémica".f1 As the financial system represents the termination of the capitalist system, because it is there where all the product of the work acquires the universal form of the value, the warning of Roubini specifies the tendency to the dissolution of the capitalist social relations and the incapacity of the present political regime to do to him in front. It is obvious, on the other hand, that "one (`inconteniblé) sistémica financial crisis" will not find their limits in the North American borders.
The one of Roubini it would not have happened to be one more a position in the discussions than it has untied the present crisis, if it had not received endorsement from the waited for place less: the publisher of the Financial Timesf2, spokesman of international the financial capital "Is at least reasonable this class of scene", Martín Wolf asks to him its readers. "it is It", it responds, "and we can be sure that, to happen, it will end all histories of ` I disconnect" in reference to the relation between the economy of the United States and the one of the rest of the main countries. For Wolf, nevertheless, the crisis not only has an exit but that she will prevail like a "iron law": the capital will finish unavoidably being rescued by the State, it is by means of the estatización of the insolvente debt or the inflation, or both simultaneously. Pain is one that the publisher of the FT has stopped his argument here, because a estatización in mass of the financial capital would be equivalent to a financial bankruptcy of the State that rescues it; the inflation to a generalized social ruin; and both to a breakup without precedents of the social relations.
The first point that exposes Roubini is the collapse that is happening with the prices of the houses, that could sweep, if it arrives at the order of the 20 to the 30 percent, with 4 to 6 trillions of real estate wealth and to put in negative value to ten million properties - that is when the value of the property falls below the value of the received loan to buy that property. At the beginning of March, indeed, the statistics let see that the patrimonial value of the homes had entered negative land for the first time from World War II. This phenomenon precipitates the breach of the hypothecating payments, even on the part of indebted the solvents, because the closing of the property represents an inferior cost the debt. Supposing a stock of hypothecating debts of 50 trillions of dollars, default already affects a segment that goes from the 10 to 20% of the total; although still one is distant of 50% of cessation of payments that was the rate of bankruptcy in the crisis of years ' 30, the speed whereupon it is increasing surpasses to any previous hypothecating crisis. The number of empty or vacant properties is of near two million.
To the devaluation which they are suffering the prices of the properties it is necessary to add the casualties that the breach of the payments of the adjustable loans is inflicting to the deserving banks hypothecating, calls ` I subprioritized, that already is of about 400,000 million dollars but that it could reach the trillion if it continues the present tendency. This collapse will affect other forms of credit which they have like guarantee to these hypothecating loans - which represents a market (structured credits) of 8 trillions of dollars, that is at the completely congealed present time, that is that is transacciones.f3 no half of the international market of credit is formed by bonds with diverse classes of guarantee (other half is bank loans), that in greater or smaller proportion includes incobrables hypothecating credits of different characteristics. There is a landslide scene of the debt market, that moves about 50 trillions of dollars. The system of protection of these titles on the part of specialized companies of insurances or by bottoms of cover, is in ruins, due to the little base of capital of the insurers. If a rate of breach of the 1.3% is assumed, "about 500,000 million dollars would operate in the face of negociantes".4 the things appear quite worse to I decipher it by Roubini. That extreme potential of losses is equivalent to 25% of total the banking capitalization of the United States - of 2 trillions of dollars or to a little less with respect to international the banking capitalization - of 2.7 trillions. If we considered the total of speculative transactions that have by base the bond markets and actions (derived), of more than 500 trillions of dollars, default of 2% represents losses by 10 trillions.
The description of ` catástrofé in course also enters the breach in the payment of the diverse forms of credit the consumption, to the point that the interest rate of the credit cards already surpasses comfortably both digits. To this it is necessary to add the extension from the crisis to commercial the hypothecating market and the impact that it is causing in the regional banks. In agreement with a recent report, "a tremendous one exists on supply of retail commercial space".
Other 500,000 million dollars are clogged in the banks by loans for purchases of companies, whose titles cannot be sold in the market to the original value. Although, according to the publisher of the FT, Martin Wolf, "the North American companies they are in good form, one ` part obesá has low yields and a debt elevada".5 ` defaults' that would be from the devaluation of this bond class in being able of the banks would cause losses by 250,000 million dollars.
To these sinsabores Roubini it adds the disintegration of the "financial system in the shades", that is of all the deregulated financial companies, like common bottoms, trusts or bottoms of cover, that do not have access to bottoms of the central banks. The final consequence of all this landslide cascade would be crash of the Bags and the collapse of the markets of capitals, where the financial assets would finish being sold to prices of closing.
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2008-05-17T06:09:21+02:00
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